Round by Round Predictor

Base Stat – Jeff Sagarin’s Sagarin

In this model, we used a spreadsheet we developed to compare each team by round by a base stat. The spreadsheet can use various team stats that are in the dataset. However, for our purposes we ran just a simple straight-up analysis using Sagarin.

In summary:

Gonzaga beats out Arizona for Championship
Gonzaga/Baylor and Arizona/Kansas face off in the Final Four
#3 Tennessee is the lowest seed to break into the Elite 8
#7 LSU is the lowest seed in the Sweet 16

Again, too much “chalk.”