The Most Important things to know
As part of this ongoing project, Rusty redid the 98 item correlation matrix with another two years of data. When it was all boiled down, the 65 parameters had at least some correlation to wins. Twenty-three parameters had high correlations to wins. And seventeen pieces of data turned out to be pure junk. That data will be presented elsewhere.
But…for now…
In a review of Rusty’s 2021 data, he identified three key data sets. They were Base Efficiency, Total Adjusted Efficiency, and Total Efficiency, all datasets developed within this project. Fourteen tournament teams matched at least one of his key data sets. Of those fourteen, ten out of fourteen made it through the first round (with one of the four losers losing to another in this group). Six of those ten teams made it to the Sweet 16. Four of those six teams made it to the Elite Eight. Two made it to the Final Four with one other losing to another team within this group. Those final two (Gonzaga and Baylor) made it to the Championship game with Baylor winning. Of course, that final wasn’t unexpected or a great revelation. But, overall, these fourteen teams when pitted against teams not in this group were 24-9.
Two of Rusty’s insights in particular were spot on. The tournament was Gonzaga’s to lose, and they did with the help of a very aggressive Baylor team. Losing the battle on the boards, turnovers, and season low scoring the Bulldogs had their dream season slip away. Additionally, Rusty’s analysis pointed to a great Rutgers/Clemson match-up. As he stated last year, “[t]he split between Rutgers and Clemson, being less than two decimal points difference in win predictions, becomes the most contentious game in the 2021 season.” True to his prediction, that game was a 60-56 Rutgers victory that could have gone either way.
The Kiss of Death Seeds
Of course, in the evaluation of seeds, everything comes down to one goal – developing the best bracket possible. To make sure you have at least the basic end result in your sight, make sure you avoid the “Kiss of Death” Seeds.
These seeds are of course the 13th, 14th, 15th, and 16th seeds. Combined they have an awesome record of 73-576, winning just 12.7%. So, the odds of this lowly group surviving to the Sweet 16 is almost on the level of winning a lottery. Between them, all the 13-16th seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 just ten (10) times. That is twelve times less than the 12th seed alone.
Yet, there is one more seed that should be included in this list of the unfortunate cannon fodder for other teams. It’s the 9th seed. In fact, when you look at the poor ninth seed, I like to think of it as a special kind of kiss of death seed. For the 13th through 16th seeds are obvious.
Yet the ninth seed has only succeeded in getting to the Sweet 16 just 6 times over the past 36 years. That is nine less than their rival eighth seed. That is 17 fewer than the 10th seed. That is 18 times less than the 11th seed. That is 16 times less than the 12th seed. It is the same number of times the lowly 13th seed has made it to Sweet 16. So, when your team gets a ninth seed, do not think it is a reward over a 10th-13th seed. It is just a really cruel joke. A joke that rears its ugly head each and every tournament.
So, remember all your Kiss of Death seeds when working your brackets. Remember them all. The 13th through the 16th. And of course, the 9th.
Upsets defined
As a note, upsets can be defined in many ways. My favorite is upset is any time a team I had picked loses. It really upsets my bracket. Ok, my bad joke is now over.
Upsets are generally seen as a minimum win of a team that is at least four (4) seeds below the loser. Some would argue that this is too stringent a standard and that three (3) seeds might be more appropriate. But for this listing, we will use the four (4) seed standards.
Of the 2,268 games played in the modern era, 1,511 games pitted teams with this potential upset differential. That’s 66.6% of all the games played. Of those 1,511 games, the underdog upset the better seed 330 times (21.8%). So, it’s good to know what seeds have the most potential for upsets.
Of course, any seed differential of 12 or more is highly unusual with the lower seed winning 10 out of 294 games (3.4% of the time). Those that fall between 9 and 11 seed difference fare much better, winning 61 of 342 games (17.8% of the time). But of course, the best chances for an upset are for teams that are only 4-8 seeds lower than their foe. These teams have won 259 of the 875 matchups (29.6% of the time).
So, will we see more upsets in the coming 2022 tournament? Given the lack of the true runaway teams of past tournaments, this could be the year of the upset. But remember, some things will change only a little. A 16 vs. 16 final is not your best bet.
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