2023 Tournament Over and Under Seeding

Virginia and Missouri Most Overseeded, West Virginia Most Underseeded

How we determine under and over seeding

When we look to see how teams are seeded we use Sagarin’s data to simply look at where a team might be expected to fall in the seeding charts. When we do this we only determine that a team is under or over seeded if there is a two seed difference between their actual seeding and their predicted seeding.

Most Underseeded

This year, West Virginia is the one seed that looks to be the most underseeded. According to our analysis the Mountaineers should be a 4 seed, not a 9 seed. Of course, since they are a 9 seed and in Alabama’s bracket, their chances are slim at best of going far. Of course, if they were a 4 seed in Alabama’s bracket, they would have had a good chance of defeating both Furman and San Diego St.

Most Overseeded

This years most overseeded teams are Missouri and Virginia. It is therefore no wonder that both the Tigers and the Cavaliers are picked as teams in various models that just might be upset.

Other Significant Seeding Issues

Gonzaga could lay claim to acting like a number 1 seed. Again, not a surprise that some think the Bulldogs have a chance for a national title.

Purdue is probably more like a 3 seed than a 1 seed. The Boilermakers are in fact seen as the weakest of the 1 seeds.

Tennessee and UConn are both strong 4 seeds that are more like 2 seeds. That should make the Volunteers and the Huskies both strong Final Four contenders.

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