2024 Game Predictor Analysis Results

The Game Predictor is a single-pass hard look at the simple comparison data without any adjustment for opponents’ strength of schedule or other adjustments. The results are how the game might play out. The individual results for each game can be seen by clicking on the game number.

Originally this was set to just show the games as they should play out for the entire tournament. However, we decided to change it to bring forth uptodate predictions as the tournament continued.

The one thing that is very obvious in this method of analysis is how close teams have become. In the original analysis, out of the 63 games, a tie-breaker had to be applied to determine the winner in 3 of those games. All games show that the margin of victory would be very small. Since this is basically not how basketball works out, the assumption is that like other analyses we have done, the “score” is just a general indicator of the winner of the game and will probably not give an accurate measure of the game’s actual score or margin of victory.

However, each game analysis shows how each team matches up with its opponent in that particular game.

GameResultTie Breaker Applied
Game1(1) Connecticut 76, (16) Stetson 70
Game 2(8) Florida Atlantic 75, (9) Northwestern 72
Game 3(5) San Diego St. 74, (12) UAB 72
Game 4(4) Auburn 77, (13) Yale 72
Game 5(5) BYU 74, (11) Duquesne 70
Game 6(14) Morehead St. 74, (3) Illinois 74 (Illinois wins via tie breaker)Tie Breaker Applied
Game 7 (10) Drake 74, (7) Washington St. 72
Game 8(2) Iowa St. 73, (15) South Dakota St. 71
Game 9(1) North Carolina 71, (16) Wagner 67
Game 10 (9) Michigan St. 72, (8) Mississippi St. 71
Game 11(5) Saint Mary's 70, (12) Grand Canyon 69
Game 12(4) Alabama 82, (13) Charleston 80
Game 13 (11) New Mexico 76, (6) Clemson 73
Game 14(3) Baylor 73, (14) Colgate 71
Game 15 (10) Nevada 71, (7) Dayton 70
Game 16(2) Arizona 82, (15) Long Beach St. 75
Game 17(1) Houston 70, (16) Longwood 66
Game 18(8) Nebraska 75, (9) Texas A&M 73
Game 19 (12) James Madison 78, (5) Wisconsin 71
Game 20(4) Duke 71, (13) Vermont 69
Game 21(6) Texas Tech 75, (11) NC State 72
Game 22(3) Kentucky 80, (14) Oakland 78
Game 23 (10) Colorado 79, (7) Florida 78
Game 24(2) Marquette 77, (15) Western Kentucky 76
Game 25(1) Purdue 77, (16) Grambling St. 69
Game 26(8) Utah St. 75, (9) TCU 74
Game 27 (12) McNeese St. 76, (6) Gonzaga 73
Game 28 (13) Samford 77, (4) Kansas 75
Game 29(11) Oregon 72, (6) South Carolina 72 (South Carolina wins via tie breaker)Tie Breaker Applied
Game 30(3) Creighton 73, (14) Akron 72
Game 31 (11) Colorado St. 73, (7) Texas 72
Game 32(2) Tennessee 71, (15) St. Peter's 66
Game 33(1) Connecticut 77, (8) Florida Atlantic 73
Game 34 (4) Auburn 75, (5) San Diego St. 71
Game 35(5) BYU 79, (3) Illinois 77
Game 36(10) Drake 77, (3) Illinois 77 (Drake wins via tie breaker)Tie Breaker Applied
Game 37(1) North Carolina 73, (9) Michigan St. 72
Game 38(5) Saint Mary's 78, (4) Alabama 75
Game 39(11) New Mexico 77, (3) Baylor 75
Game 40 (2) Arizona 77, (10) Nevada 74
Game 41(1) Houston 73, (8) Nebraska 68
Game 42(12) James Madison 77, (4) Duke 74
Game 43 (3) Kentucky 80, (6) Texas Tech 77
Game 44 (2) Marquette 76, (10) Colorado 74
Game 45(1) Purdue 76, (8) Utah St. 75
Game 46(12) McNeese St. 77, (13) Samford 73
Game 47 (3) Creighton 74, (6) South Carolina 72
Game 48 (2) Tennessee 75, (11) Colorado St. 72
Game 49(1) Connecticut 75, (4) Auburn 74
Game 50 (10) Drake 76, (5) BYU 75
Game 51(5) Saint Mary's 71, (1) North Carolina 71 (North Carolina wins via tie breaker)Tie Breaker Applied
Game 52 (2) Arizona 79, (11) New Mexico 76
Game 53 (12) James Madison 72, (1) Houston 71
Game 54 (2) Marquette 80, (3) Kentucky 79
Game 55 (12) McNeese St. 77, (1) Purdue 73
Game 56 (2) Tennessee 75, (3) Creighton 74
Game 57(1) Connecticut 75, (10) Drake 73
Game 58 (2) Arizona 78, (1) North Carolina 76
Game 59(2) James Madison 77, (0.043) Marquette 74
Game 60(12) McNeese St. 75, (2) Tennessee 70
Game 61(1) Connecticut 77, (2) Arizona 76
Game 62 (12) McNeese St. 76, (12) James Madison 74
Game 63 (12) McNeese St. 73, (1) Connecticut 71

Views: 1