2023 March Madness Cinderellas

Slipper Update – 3/17

Of the possible Cinderellas mentioned who have played, Furman and Penn St. won. Boise St., Colgate, and Utah St. lost. Still, to be real Cinderellas, they need to win at least one more game each. Drake, Florida Atlantic, Grand Canyon, and UNC Asheville play today.

Slippers anyone?

As I keep searching for a better statistical way to look at Cinderellas, I will give a list of ALL the teams that ALMOST match a criteria I found a number of years ago. I can’t remember the exact reference. In fact, the idea was written on a slip of paper and eventually scanned into my computer. Sorry, it’s how some of my best ideas evolve. (The Chief)

The parameters are teams that shoot well from the 3 pt line (38.3%) and have a high steal percentage (10.9%). There are eight teams that meet the first criteria. There are NO teams that match the second. However, Gonzaga and Colgate are the closest.

Since Gonzaga wouldn’t be considered a Cinderella, that would leave Colgate as the only statistically possible Cinderella using this criteria. In some of my models, I do show that Colgate just might give Texas and then Texas A&M some trouble. In fact, in one model, the Raiders hang around only to lose to Houston in an Elite 8 matchup. Now wouldn’t that be something

On Gonzaga, although they are not a Cinderella by definition, this stat list makes you wonder what that means overall for them in the tournament. Maybe this is just another indication that the Bulldogs might be better than seeded.

Finally, another team I think this might help their outlook is Utah St. These Aggies might best the Tigers of Missouri, but will still likely fall to Arizona in their second game.

Other lower teams for other reasons also might be Cinderellas include Furman, Florida Atlantic, Drake, and Boise St.

Here’s the data:

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