Base Stat – Jeff Sagarin’s Sagarin
In this model, we used a spreadsheet we developed to compare each team by round by a base stat. The spreadsheet can use various team stats that are in the dataset. However, for our purposes we ran just a simple straight-up analysis using Sagarin.
In summary:
Gonzaga beats out Arizona for Championship
Gonzaga/Baylor and Arizona/Kansas face off in the Final Four
#3 Tennessee is the lowest seed to break into the Elite 8
#7 LSU is the lowest seed in the Sweet 16
Again, too much “chalk.”
| Game | Round | Seed | Team 1 | Seed | Team 2 | Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1st Round | 1 | Gonzaga | 16 | TX Southern | Gonzaga |
| 2 | 1st Round | 8 | Boise St | 8 | Boise St | Memphis |
| 3 | 1st Round | 5 | Uconn | 12 | New Mexico St | Uconn |
| 4 | 1st Round | 4 | Arkansas | 13 | Vermont | Arkansas |
| 5 | 1st Round | 6 | Alabama | 16 | Wright State | Alabama |
| 6 | 1st Round | 3 | Texas Tech | 14 | Montana State | Texas Tech |
| 7 | 1st Round | 7 | Michigan State | 10 | Davidson | Michigan State |
| 8 | 1st Round | 2 | Duke | 15 | CS Fullerton | Duke |
| 9 | 1st Round | 1 | Baylor | 16 | TX Southern | Baylor |
| 10 | 1st Round | 8 | North Carolina | 9 | Marquette | North Carolina |
| 11 | 1st Round | 5 | Saint Marys | 12 | Indiana | Saint Mary's |
| 12 | 1st Round | 4 | UCLA | 13 | Akron | UCLA |
| 13 | 1st Round | 6 | Texas | 12 | Indiana | Texas |
| 14 | 1st Round | 3 | Purdue | 14 | Yale | Purdue |
| 15 | 1st Round | 7 | Murray State | 10 | San Francisco | San Francisco |
| 16 | 1st Round | 2 | Kentucky | 15 | St Peters | Kentucky |
| 17 | 1st Round | 1 | Arizona | 16 | Wright State | Arizona |
| 18 | 1st Round | 8 | Seton Hall | 9 | TCU | Seton Hall |
| 19 | 1st Round | 5 | Houston | 12 | UAB | Houston |
| 20 | 1st Round | 4 | Illinois | 13 | Chattanooga | Illinois |
| 21 | 1st Round | 6 | Colorado State | 11 | Michigan | Michigan |
| 22 | 1st Round | 3 | Tennessee | 14 | Longwood | Tennessee |
| 23 | 1st Round | 7 | Ohio State | 10 | Loyola Chicago | Ohio State |
| 24 | 1st Round | 2 | Villanova | 15 | Delaware | Villanova |
| 25 | 1st Round | 1 | Kansas | 16 | TX Southern | Kansas |
| 26 | 1st Round | 8 | San Diego State | 9 | Creighton | San Diego State |
| 27 | 1st Round | 5 | Iowa | 12 | Richmond | Iowa |
| 28 | 1st Round | 4 | Providence | 13 | S Dakota St | Providence |
| 29 | 1st Round | 6 | LSU | 11 | Notre Dame | LSU |
| 30 | 1st Round | 3 | Wisconsin | 14 | Colgate | Wisconsin |
| 31 | 1st Round | 7 | USC | 10 | Miami | USC |
| 32 | 1st Round | 2 | Auburn | 15 | Jacksonville State | Auburn |
| 33 | 1/8/9/16 | 1 | Gonzaga | 9 | Memphis | Gonzaga |
| 34 | 4/5/12/13 | 5 | Uconn | 4 | Arkansas | Uconn |
| 35 | 3/6/11/14 | 6 | Alabama | 3 | Texas Tech | Texas Tech |
| 36 | 2/7/10/15 | 7 | Michigan State | 2 | Duke | Duke |
| 37 | 1/8/9/16 | 1 | Baylor | 8 | North Carolina | Baylor |
| 38 | 4/5/12/13 | 5 | Saint Marys | 4 | UCLA | UCLA |
| 39 | 3/6/11/14 | 6 | Texas | 3 | Purdue | Purdue |
| 40 | 2/7/10/15 | 10 | San Francisco | 2 | Kentucky | Kentucky |
| 41 | 1/8/9/16 | 1 | Arizona | 8 | Seton Hall | Arizona |
| 42 | 4/5/12/13 | 5 | Houston | 4 | Illinois | Houston |
| 43 | 3/6/11/14 | 11 | Michigan | 3 | Tennessee | Tennessee |
| 44 | 2/7/10/15 | 7 | Ohio State | 2 | Villanova | Villanova |
| 45 | 1/8/9/16 | 1 | Kansas | 8 | San Diego State | Kansas |
| 46 | 4/5/12/13 | 5 | Iowa | 4 | Providence | Iowa |
| 47 | 3/6/11/14 | 6 | LSU | 3 | Wisconsin | LSU |
| 48 | 2/7/10/15 | 7 | USC | 2 | Auburn | Auburn |
| 49 | Top Seed | 1 | Gonzaga | 5 | Uconn | Gonzaga |
| 50 | 2nd Seed | 3 | Texas Tech | 2 | Duke | Duke |
| 51 | Top Seed | 1 | Baylor | 4 | UCLA | Baylor |
| 52 | 2nd Seed | 2 | Kentucky | 2 | Kentucky | Kentucky |
| 53 | Top Seed | 1 | Arizona | 5 | Houston | Arizona |
| 54 | 2nd Seed | 3 | Tennessee | 2 | Villanova | Tennessee |
| 55 | Top Seed | 1 | Kansas | 5 | Iowa | Kansas |
| 56 | 2nd Seed | 6 | LSU | 2 | Auburn | Auburn |
| 57 | E8 | 1 | Gonzaga | 2 | Duke | Gonzaga |
| 58 | E8 | 1 | Baylor | 2 | Kentucky | Baylor |
| 59 | E8 | 1 | Arizona | 3 | Tennessee | Arizona |
| 60 | E8 | 1 | Kansas | 2 | Auburn | Kansas |
| 61 | Semis | 1 | Gonzaga | 1 | Baylor | Gonzaga |
| 62 | Semis | 1 | Arizona | 1 | Kansas | Arizona |
| 63 | Finals | 1 | Gonzaga | 1 | Arizona | Gonzaga |
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