A Different Look at NCAA Tournament Predictions
Pardon our mess as we clean this site up! Keep seeding!
This is going to be an awesome year!
After consistently landing in the top 10% on ESPN and nearly taking the crown once, it’s time to level up and have some fun doing it. This year, I’ll be making live updates to the predictive model as the madness unfolds. Here’s to going higher—and enjoying the ride!
2025 NCAA Men's Tournament Prediction Experiment
Game No | Round | Matchup | Current Projected Winner | Actual Winner | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Round of 64 | (1) Auburn vs. (16) Alabama St. | Auburn | Auburn | Correct |
2 | Round of 64 | (8) Louisville vs. (9) Creighton | Louisville | Creighton | Wrong |
3 | Round of 64 | (5) Michigan vs. (12) UC San Diego | UC San Diego | Michigan | Wrong |
4 | Round of 64 | (4) Texas A&M vs. (13) Yale | Yale | Texas A&M | Wrong |
5 | Round of 64 | (6) Ole Miss vs. (11) North Carolina | Ole Miss | Ole Miss | Correct |
6 | Round of 64 | (3) Iowa St. vs. (14) Lipscomb | Iowa St. | Iowa St. | Correct |
7 | Round of 64 | (7) Marquette vs. (10) New Mexico | New Mexico | New Mexico | Correct |
8 | Round of 64 | (2) Michigan St. vs. (15) Bryant | Michigan St. | Michigan St. | Correct |
9 | Round of 64 | (1) Florida vs. (16) Norfolk St. | Florida | Florida | Correct |
10 | Round of 64 | (8) Connecticut vs. (9) Oklahoma | Connecticut | Connecticut | Correct |
11 | Round of 64 | (5) Memphis vs. (12) Colorado St. | Colorado St. | Colorado St. | Correct |
12 | Round of 64 | (4) Maryland vs. (13) Grand Canyon | Grand Canyon | Maryland | Wrong |
13 | Round of 64 | (6) Missouri vs. (11) Drake | Drake | Drake | Correct |
14 | Round of 64 | (3) Texas Tech vs. (14) UNCW | Texas Tech | Texas Tech | Correct |
15 | Round of 64 | (7) Kansas vs. (10) Arkansas | Kansas | Arkansas | Wrong |
16 | Round of 64 | (2) St. Johns vs. (15) Omaha | St. Johns | St. Johns | Correct |
17 | Round of 64 | (1) Duke vs. (16) Mount St. Marys | Duke | Duke | Correct |
18 | Round of 64 | (8) Mississippi St. vs. (9) Baylor | Baylor | Baylor | Correct |
19 | Round of 64 | (5) Oregon vs. (12) Liberty | Liberty | Oregon | Wrong |
20 | Round of 64 | (4) Arizona vs. (13) Akron | Arizona | Arizona | Correct |
21 | Round of 64 | (6) BYU vs. (11) VCU | VCU | BYU | Wrong |
22 | Round of 64 | (3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Montana | Wisconsin | Wisconsin | Correct |
23 | Round of 64 | (7) Saint Marys vs. (10) Vanderbilt | Saint Marys | Saint Marys | Correct |
24 | Round of 64 | (2) Alabama vs. (15) Robert Morris | Alabama | Alabama | Correct |
25 | Round of 64 | (1) Houston vs. (16) SIUE | Houston | Houston | Correct |
26 | Round of 64 | (8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Georgia | Gonzaga | Gonzaga | Correct |
27 | Round of 64 | (5) Clemson vs. (12) McNeese | McNeese | McNeese | Correct |
28 | Round of 64 | (4) Purdue vs. (13) High Point | High Point | Purdue | Wrong |
29 | Round of 64 | (6) Illinois vs. (11) Xavier | Illinois | Illinois | Correct |
30 | Round of 64 | (3) Kentucky vs. (14) Troy | Troy | Kentucky | Wrong |
31 | Round of 64 | (7) UCLA vs. (10) Utah State | UCLA | UCLA | Correct |
32 | Round of 64 | (2) Tennessee vs. (15) Wofford | Tennessee | Tennessee | Correct |
33 | Round of 32 | (1) Auburn vs. (9) Creighton | Auburn | Auburn | Correct |
34 | Round of 32 | (5) Michigan vs. (4) Texas A&M | Michigan | Michigan | Correct |
35 | Round of 32 | (6) Ole Miss vs. (3) Iowa St. | Iowa St. | Ole MIss | Wrong |
36 | Round of 32 | (10) New Mexico vs. (2) Michigan St. | Michigan St. | Michigan St. | Correct |
37 | Round of 32 | (1) Florida vs. (8) Connecticut | Florida | Florida | Correct |
38 | Round of 32 | (12) Colorado St. vs. (4) Maryland | Colorado St. | Maryland | Wrong |
39 | Round of 32 | (11) Drake vs. (3) Texas Tech | Texas Tech | Texas Tech | Correct |
40 | Round of 32 | (10) Arkansas vs. (2) St. Johns | St. Johns | Arkansas | Wrong |
41 | Round of 32 | (1) Duke vs. (9) Baylor | Duke | Duke | Correct |
42 | Round of 32 | (5) Oregon vs. (4) Arizona | Arizona | Arizona | Correct |
43 | Round of 32 | (6) BYU vs. (3) Wisconsin | Wisconsin | BYU | Wrong |
44 | Round of 32 | (7) Saint Marys vs. (2) Alabama | Saint Marys | Alabama | Wrong |
45 | Round of 32 | (1) Houston vs. (8) Gonzaga | Gonzaga | Houston | Wrong |
46 | Round of 32 | (12) McNeese vs. (4) Purdue | McNeese | Purdue | Wrong |
47 | Round of 32 | (6) Illinois vs. (3) Kentucky | Kentucky | Kentucky | Correct |
48 | Round of 32 | (7) UCLA vs. (2) Tennessee | Tennessee | Tennessee | Correct |
49 | Sweet 16 | (1) Auburn vs. (5) Michigan | Auburn | Auburn | Correct |
50 | Sweet 16 | (6) Ole MIss vs. (2) Michigan St. | Michigan St. | Michigan St. | Correct |
51 | Sweet 16 | (1) Florida vs. (4) Maryland | Florida | Florida | Correct |
52 | Sweet 16 | (3) Texas Tech vs. (10) Arkansas | Texas Tech | Texas Tech | Correct |
53 | Sweet 16 | (1) Duke vs. (4) Arizona | Duke | Duke | Correct |
54 | Sweet 16 | (6) BYU vs. (2) Alabama | BYU | Alabama | Wrong |
55 | Sweet 16 | (1) Houston vs. (4) Purdue | Houston | Houston | Correct |
56 | Sweet 16 | (3) Kentucky vs. (2) Tennessee | Tennessee | Tennessee | Correct |
57 | Elite 8 | (1) Auburn vs. (2) Michigan St. | Auburn | Auburn | Correct |
58 | Elite 8 | (1) Florida vs. (3) Texas Tech | Florida | Florida | Correct |
59 | Elite 8 | (1) Duke vs. (2) Alabama | Duke | Duke | Correct |
60 | Elite 8 | (1) Houston vs. (2) Tennessee | Houston | Houston | Correct |
61 | Semifinals | (1) Auburn vs. (1) Florida | Florida | ||
62 | Semifinals | (1) Duke vs. (1) Houston | Duke | ||
63 | Championship | (1) Florida vs. (1) Duke | Duke |
The Seed Report is a multi-year project that involves several different people uniting for one purpose – the search for the perfect bracket. As of yet, no one has done it. Yet in a number of years, the principal architect of this report has maintained a success rate above 90%, He has also finished second in one national contest. In fact, he would have won that year if he had not gone against his data as he chose his favorite beloved team despite what the data showed. Alas, we all do it.
It’s March. Get ready for the madness.
Will you finally be the first to get a perfect bracket? Remember it’s only a 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. So no problem!
Check out:
2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Team Summaries where all team summaries contain not just the basics but an in-depth analysis of 32 data points including the team’s efficiencies. This also includes a comparison of how a team has stacked up against their opponents and in what areas they have advantages and disadvantages.
2023 Tournament Over and Under Seeding where we explain why people need to pay attention to West Virginia, Gonzaga, Purdue, Tennessee, and UConn in making their brackets. Also why they need to be wary of Missouri and Virginia.
2023 March Madness Cinderellas where we look at a statistical analysis that identifies Colgate as a possible Cinderella. We also identify four other possible Cinderellas and make an argument that Gonzaga while not a Cinderella has even those qualities in their tournament resume.
Top 100 Players in Tournament (Scoring and Efficiency) – As we looked at all the players in college basketball, it is no surprise that most of the top 100 players in our six categories of efficiency are playing in the NCAA tournament. What may surprise you is how many of these players are on one team.
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