Welcome to the Seed Report

A Different Look at NCAA Tournament Predictions

This is going to be an awesome year!
After consistently landing in the top 10% on ESPN and nearly taking the crown once, it’s time to level up and have some fun doing it. This year, I’ll be making live updates to the predictive model as the madness unfolds. Here’s to going higher—and enjoying the ride!

2025 NCAA Men's Tournament Prediction Experiment

Game NoRoundMatchupCurrent Projected WinnerActual WinnerResult
1Round of 64(1) Auburn vs. (16) Alabama St.AuburnAuburnCorrect
2Round of 64(8) Louisville vs. (9) CreightonLouisvilleCreightonWrong
3Round of 64(5) Michigan vs. (12) UC San DiegoUC San DiegoMichiganWrong
4Round of 64(4) Texas A&M vs. (13) YaleYaleTexas A&MWrong
5Round of 64(6) Ole Miss vs. (11) North CarolinaOle MissOle MissCorrect
6Round of 64(3) Iowa St. vs. (14) LipscombIowa St.Iowa St.Correct
7Round of 64(7) Marquette vs. (10) New MexicoNew MexicoNew MexicoCorrect
8Round of 64(2) Michigan St. vs. (15) BryantMichigan St.Michigan St.Correct
9Round of 64(1) Florida vs. (16) Norfolk St.FloridaFloridaCorrect
10Round of 64(8) Connecticut vs. (9) OklahomaConnecticutConnecticutCorrect
11Round of 64(5) Memphis vs. (12) Colorado St.Colorado St.Colorado St.Correct
12Round of 64(4) Maryland vs. (13) Grand CanyonGrand CanyonMarylandWrong
13Round of 64(6) Missouri vs. (11) DrakeDrakeDrakeCorrect
14Round of 64(3) Texas Tech vs. (14) UNCWTexas TechTexas TechCorrect
15Round of 64(7) Kansas vs. (10) ArkansasKansasArkansasWrong
16Round of 64(2) St. Johns vs. (15) OmahaSt. JohnsSt. JohnsCorrect
17Round of 64(1) Duke vs. (16) Mount St. MarysDukeDukeCorrect
18Round of 64(8) Mississippi St. vs. (9) BaylorBaylorBaylorCorrect
19Round of 64(5) Oregon vs. (12) LibertyLibertyOregonWrong
20Round of 64(4) Arizona vs. (13) AkronArizonaArizonaCorrect
21Round of 64(6) BYU vs. (11) VCUVCUBYUWrong
22Round of 64(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) MontanaWisconsinWisconsinCorrect
23Round of 64(7) Saint Marys vs. (10) VanderbiltSaint MarysSaint MarysCorrect
24Round of 64(2) Alabama vs. (15) Robert MorrisAlabamaAlabamaCorrect
25Round of 64(1) Houston vs. (16) SIUEHoustonHoustonCorrect
26Round of 64(8) Gonzaga vs. (9) GeorgiaGonzagaGonzagaCorrect
27Round of 64(5) Clemson vs. (12) McNeeseMcNeeseMcNeeseCorrect
28Round of 64(4) Purdue vs. (13) High PointHigh PointPurdueWrong
29Round of 64(6) Illinois vs. (11) XavierIllinoisIllinoisCorrect
30Round of 64(3) Kentucky vs. (14) TroyTroyKentuckyWrong
31Round of 64(7) UCLA vs. (10) Utah StateUCLAUCLACorrect
32Round of 64(2) Tennessee vs. (15) WoffordTennesseeTennesseeCorrect
33Round of 32(1) Auburn vs. (9) CreightonAuburnAuburnCorrect
34Round of 32(5) Michigan vs. (4) Texas A&MMichiganMichiganCorrect
35Round of 32(6) Ole Miss vs. (3) Iowa St.Iowa St.Ole MIssWrong
36Round of 32(10) New Mexico vs. (2) Michigan St.Michigan St.Michigan St.Correct
37Round of 32(1) Florida vs. (8) ConnecticutFloridaFloridaCorrect
38Round of 32(12) Colorado St. vs. (4) MarylandColorado St.MarylandWrong
39Round of 32(11) Drake vs. (3) Texas TechTexas TechTexas TechCorrect
40Round of 32(10) Arkansas vs. (2) St. JohnsSt. JohnsArkansasWrong
41Round of 32(1) Duke vs. (9) BaylorDukeDukeCorrect
42Round of 32(5) Oregon vs. (4) ArizonaArizonaArizonaCorrect
43Round of 32(6) BYU vs. (3) WisconsinWisconsinBYUWrong
44Round of 32(7) Saint Marys vs. (2) AlabamaSaint MarysAlabamaWrong
45Round of 32(1) Houston vs. (8) GonzagaGonzagaHoustonWrong
46Round of 32(12) McNeese vs. (4) PurdueMcNeesePurdueWrong
47Round of 32(6) Illinois vs. (3) KentuckyKentuckyKentuckyCorrect
48Round of 32(7) UCLA vs. (2) TennesseeTennesseeTennesseeCorrect
49Sweet 16(1) Auburn vs. (5) MichiganAuburnAuburnCorrect
50Sweet 16(6) Ole MIss vs. (2) Michigan St.Michigan St.Michigan St.Correct
51Sweet 16(1) Florida vs. (4) MarylandFloridaFloridaCorrect
52Sweet 16(3) Texas Tech vs. (10) ArkansasTexas TechTexas TechCorrect
53Sweet 16(1) Duke vs. (4) ArizonaDukeDukeCorrect
54Sweet 16(6) BYU vs. (2) AlabamaBYUAlabamaWrong
55Sweet 16(1) Houston vs. (4) PurdueHoustonHoustonCorrect
56Sweet 16(3) Kentucky vs. (2) TennesseeTennesseeTennesseeCorrect
57Elite 8(1) Auburn vs. (2) Michigan St.AuburnAuburnCorrect
58Elite 8(1) Florida vs. (3) Texas TechFloridaFloridaCorrect
59Elite 8(1) Duke vs. (2) AlabamaDukeDukeCorrect
60Elite 8(1) Houston vs. (2) TennesseeHoustonHoustonCorrect
61Semifinals(1) Auburn vs. (1) FloridaFlorida
62Semifinals(1) Duke vs. (1) HoustonDuke
63Championship(1) Florida vs. (1) DukeDuke

The Seed Report is a multi-year project that involves several different people uniting for one purpose – the search for the perfect bracket. As of yet, no one has done it. Yet in a number of years, the principal architect of this report has maintained a success rate above 90%, He has also finished second in one national contest. In fact, he would have won that year if he had not gone against his data as he chose his favorite beloved team despite what the data showed. Alas, we all do it.

It’s March. Get ready for the madness.

Will you finally be the first to get a perfect bracket? Remember it’s only a 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. So no problem!

Check out:

2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Team Summaries where all team summaries contain not just the basics but an in-depth analysis of 32 data points including the team’s efficiencies. This also includes a comparison of how a team has stacked up against their opponents and in what areas they have advantages and disadvantages.

2023 Tournament Over and Under Seeding where we explain why people need to pay attention to West Virginia, Gonzaga, Purdue, Tennessee, and UConn in making their brackets. Also why they need to be wary of Missouri and Virginia.

2023 March Madness Cinderellas where we look at a statistical analysis that identifies Colgate as a possible Cinderella. We also identify four other possible Cinderellas and make an argument that Gonzaga while not a Cinderella has even those qualities in their tournament resume.

Top 100 Players in Tournament (Scoring and Efficiency) – As we looked at all the players in college basketball, it is no surprise that most of the top 100 players in our six categories of efficiency are playing in the NCAA tournament. What may surprise you is how many of these players are on one team.

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