The Sweet 16 has never looked so sweet and wild. Four double digit seeds left. One 1 Seed, two 2 Seeds, three 3 Seeds, and 3 4 Seeds all sent packing. Of course, the non-surprise is there are no 9 Seeds remaining. Ah, the Kiss of Deaths seeding continues. But despite that could this be the wildest finish in history? The data doesn’t scream that way, but then again this is 2021, the hangover of 2020. Would you want to bet your house against it?
With Rusty’s prediction model, here’s where we see it playing out.
Sweet 16
#1 Gonzaga over #5 Creighton
#7 Oregon over #6 USC
#4 Florida St over #1 Michigan
#2 Alabama over #11 UCLA
#1 Baylor over #5 Villanova
#3 Arkansas over #15 Oral Roberts
#8 Loyola Chicago over #12 Oregon St
#2 Houston over #11 Syracuse
This should finally eliminate those pesky double-digit seeds along with another 1 Seed. But, we’ll see. After all it is still the hangover of 2020.
Elite 8
#1 Gonzaga over #7 Oregon
#2 Alabama over #4 Florida St
#1 Baylor over #3 Arkansas
#8 Loyola Chicago over #2 Houston
Now is when it could get interesting. Another 2 Seed falls. So we set up a Final Four of two 1 Seeds, a 2 Seed and the very underseeded 8 Seed Loyola Chicago.
Final Four
#1 Gonzaga over #2 Alabama
#1 Baylor over #8 Loyola Chicago
In the Final Four, Alabama is predicted to have the best chance of knocking of #1 Gonzaga and making it to the Championship game. Sorry Loyola, but it will finally be time to go home. Of course, that is in the absence of a miracle prayer. Hmmm. It may come down to Sister Jean for the half court three. Swish!
Championship
#1 Gonzaga over #1 Baylor
The reality is that when you breakdown the modeling, Gonzaga, Baylor and Alabama are all capable of winning the title. The edge goes to Gonzaga in the Final Four and the Finals. But if you want to hedge your bets and are playing multiple brackets, you can choose a path where each team wins. For my money, there’s something wrong in even saying that. But then again, it’s how winning the pools work.
And, of course, there is that chance, that miracle of a season to be finished. Once again, it’s Sister Jean from the corner down by four with two seconds on the clock. With a desperation three, the game is over. Or is it? Sister Jean is fouled on the made three. Overtime here we come.
Couldn’t happen, you say? Duh, it is called March Madness.
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