Relax TigerNation, Penny’s Got This!

Well, TigerNation and the Memphis press is losing their minds over the collapse of the Memphis Tigers.  It must be December.  It must be the first realization that the team might not live up to our lofty expectations.  It must be time to wonder if the season is spiraling out of control.  It must be time to wonder if we will once again not make the NCAA Tournament.  Fortunately, this year, unless we help the Tigers make that fear a self-fulfilling prophecy, these Tigers are not like any other Tigers of recent memories.  So, TigerNation relax, Penny’s got this.

Some people may think I’m crazy to believe this.  The crazy part they probably have right.  My wife, children, and anyone who knows me know I’m a little crazy.  Yet about this year’s Tigers, I know I am right.  They will be fine.  They will not only win at least twenty games, but they will also go into the AAC Tournament with a probable 23-7 record.  With a couple of wins there, they should finish with at least twenty-five wins and an NCAA berth. 

Skeptical?  Sure you are.  You’re a Tigers fan.  It’s in our blood.  Full bore ultimate belief in our Tigers at the beginning of the season, followed by a soul-stabbing doubt shortly after.  It’s what we do.  It’s how we have become conditioned. 

This year’s dream began as I watched the exhibition games from my cheap seats in the FedEx Forum.  So thrilling was the dream that I let pass a few things that concerned me.  I passed it off as the team just needed to get a few kinks worked out.  As with everyone else, I only saw the raw talent and sheer potential of my Memphis Tigers. 

But then the items that concerned me exploded into three consecutive Tigers’ losses.  Turnovers.  Missed shots.  No offense.  Questionable decisions.  They all came together to give TigerNation the soul-stabbing doubt we have come to expect.

Yet, I’m here to tell you, I’m optimistic about this team and the season that still has a long way to go.  No, I’m not just crazy, I just know data.   And the data supports the fact that this Tiger team is the team we want to see.  The data supports the fact that Penny will get this team squared and locked in.  The data supports that the veterans are improving, and the new class will come along.  The data supports that this team is better than last year’s NIT Championship team at this same time in the season.  The data supports that this team can become the special team we thought was already here.  So let’s look at the data.

First, let’s look at the record.  In the 2020-21 season, the Tigers had the same 5-3 record they do now at the same point of this season.  Over the rest of the pandemic shortened season, the Tigers went 10-4 to finish with a regular-season record of 15-7.  They went 1-1 in the AAC tournament and didn’t get selected for the NCAA Tournament with its 16-8 overall record.  However, they did go on to win the four straight games it needed to claim last year’s NIT championship. 

This season, yes, the Tigers are once again 5-3.  They also face a schedule that could cause them to lose two of their next three games, just like last year.  So they could be 6-5 at about the same time as last year.  With all that being said, this year’s Tiger team will have a regular full-season to finish making the changes and improvements it needs to become the team it should be.  They also have a schedule that will allow them the luxury to fully develop and have a chance to build their raw talent into a special team.  They will also have the time to learn each other more fully and learn how to integrate the experience of the veterans with the explosiveness of their new teammates. 

Individually the Tigers are also better compared to themselves last year and as a collective group from last year.  The difference is such that when I evaluate the players from last year versus this year in 21 categories, this year’s team is around 10% better than last year’s team at this time.  Additionally, when it comes to net positive versus negative stat comparisons, this year’s team has six players with net positives of at least 8 versus only three players last year.  This year’s outstanding players to date are Quinones (12), Duren (10), Minot (10), Harris (9), Lomax (8), and Williams (8).

In the end, as a stat man, I see this team as what it really is.  This team is better than last year’s NIT Championship team at this same time of the season.  This team also has an interesting mix of more talent and more experience.  This team thus has an upside and potential that last year’s team could not match.   

Soon I envision a Tiger team that is a lot smoother.  I see Bates learning to use the double teams that will follow him to pass off and reset for a more open shot.  In this one move, he will add 2-3 assists and 3-4 better shots for himself potentially adding 8 to 15 points to the team’s scoring.  I see Timberlake learning to guard with less fouls and to perfect his interior passing.  This too should result in a 4-8 point scoring swing.  I look for the team as a whole to cut and move and know where each other is supposed to be at any one time.  This will save us 3-5 turnovers a game.  I look for the veterans to take the lead and not to just lead, but to mentor their teammates even if it may mean that could lead to them losing their own playing time.

Yes, this is what the numbers and the dynamics of a Penny team is and will be.  I can’t wait to see the evolution.  I can’t wait to watch each phase of each period of growth.  I can’t wait to see the Tigers each and every game.

For me, like the rest of TigerNation, that means my job is to support this team – no matter what.  It is time to continue embracing our Tigers.  It is time to trust the coaching staff.  It is time to fill the seats, stand, shout and cheer.  It is time to get ready to not only get back to the NCAA tournament.  It is time to make a statement.  It’s time for the Tigers and TigerNation to roar from the rafters.  I know that’s what I’ll be doing tonight – from the cheap seats with some other great Tigers fans.  Go, Tigers, Go!!

[Notes:
After the next game, I will update the Tigers’ data and publish it and the spreadsheets with explanations – probably early next week
Not all data is included in the accompanying chart. There are a few mistakes that need to be corrected, so be patient as I sort through them.]

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