The Championship is Still UConn’s to lose, but again!!
Of course, this year if you are betting against anyone or for anyone for any reason, you just might be wrong. How we see it here:
The line is UConn favored by 7 and the over/under at 132.5. If I was a betting man, which I am not, I’d take the UConn to win but not cover and the score to go over. But then again, for a variety of reasons I’m not a betting man. However, if I had been over the years, I’d probably have a lot more coin in my accounts. Oh well, I am what I am.
The Championship game analysis:
| Expected Line* | ||
| UConn | Stat | San Diego St. |
| 71 | Base Pts | 69 |
| Adj Pts* | ||
| 25-57 (43.9%) | FG | 24-56 (42.9%) |
| 17-33 (51.5%) | 2PT FG | 18-38 (47.4%) |
| 8-24 (33.3%) | 3 PT FG | 6-18 (33.3%) |
| 13-17 (76.5%) | FT | 15-20 (75.0%) |
| 35 | Reb | 33 |
| 14 | Assists | 11 |
| 13 | TOs | 13 |
| 6 | Steals | 7 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| Basic Data Analysis | |||
| Overall | UConn | San Diego St. | Adv |
| Pts | 78.5 | 72.1 | UConn |
| Pts Against | 65.0 | 63.6 | Neutral |
| Rebs | 39.0 | 35.8 | UConn |
| Assists | 17.3 | 13.4 | UConn |
| TOs | 12.9 | 11.8 | San Diego St. |
| Steals | 6.5 | 7.1 | Neutral |
| Blocks | 4.9 | 3.7 | UConn |
| Fouls | 18.1 | 16.1 | San Diego St. |
UConn makes TWO more threes than San Diego St. to negate the fact that the Aztecs should get to the line more and make two more FTs and one more 2-PTer. With expected advantages in three-point shooting, assists, and assist-to-turnover ratio, UConn should be (and is) the favorite, but San Diego St. has a good defense and didn’t get to the Championship game by accident.
But to make up for UConn’s advantages, San Diego St. will need to maintain it’s great 3-point defense to try to deny UConn one or two of their expected 8 or more. If they do that and can keep an advantage in the “Whistle Wars,” they just might pull off the upset.
Yet for UConn to win, all they need to do is hit their marks, play their game, and don’t fall a victim to the “Whistle Wars.”
But I see a much tighter final than the line projects. Here’s to hoping I’m right. If nothing more than I personally want one more great game to finish out this wild year.
Conclusion:
The Madness continues. Enjoy!!!
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