The Championship is UConn’s to lose, but!!
Of course, this year if you are betting against anyone or for anyone for any reason, you just might be wrong. How we see it here:
Florida Atlantic beats San Diego St. The line has San Diego St. favored by 2. The Seed Report shows it as another close game, but it shows FAU winning with a possible 4-point win.
UConn beats out Miami (FL). The line on this game has UConn as a 5.5-point favorite. The Seed Report expects this game to be even closer. We see a game that could see Miami lose by just two points.
In a look at all the possible championship games, we see UConn winning over Florida Atlantic or San Diego St. with a 2-point margin in either case. Of course, the line won’t be known until after Saturday’s games.
In the event Miami pulls makes the last basket and makes it to the final, the Seed Report sees a mixed result final. Miami has a slight chance of beating out San Diego St. However, against Florida Atlantic, the Owls actually are shown to beat Miami by 5 points.
The game San Diego St./Florida Atlantic analysis:
| Expected Line* | ||
| San Diego St. | Stat | Fla. Atlantic |
| 68 | Base Pts | 72 |
| Adj Pts* | ||
| 24-58 (41.4%) | FG | 26-57 (45.6%) |
| 17-38 (44.7%) | 2PT FG | 18-33 (54.5%) |
| 7-20 (35.0%) | 3 PT FG | 8-24 (33.3%) |
| 13-17 (76.5%) | FT | 12-17 (70.6%) |
| 34 | Reb | 35 |
| 11 | Assists | 13 |
| 12 | TOs | 12 |
| 6 | Steals | 7 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| Basic Data Analysis | |||
| Overall | San Diego St. | Fla. Atlantic | Adv |
| Pts | 72.1 | 78.8 | Fla. Atlantic |
| Pts Against | 63.6 | 65.0 | Neutral |
| Rebs | 35.8 | 38.7 | Fla. Atlantic |
| Assists | 13.4 | 14.6 | Neutral |
| TOs | 11.8 | 11.8 | Neutral |
| Steals | 7.1 | 6.8 | Neutral |
| Blocks | 3.7 | 2.5 | San Diego St. |
| Fouls | 16.1 | 15.9 | Neutral |
With Florida Atlantic expected to shoot a higher overall percentage and take more 3 pt shots along with being slightly more efficient at scoring, it would take San Diego St. shooting at least three more threes and connecting on one more than the predicted line shows. Additionally, SDSU will need to share the ball better without turning the ball over.
For San Diego St, the biggest stat I see is they have a much larger FT+Off Rebound Differential. But this advantage will not only depend on SDSU rebounding well, the officials will have to call enough fouls to take advantage of their slight advantage at the line.
Will Dutcher win the first of two possible “Whistle Wars?´ If so, the Aztecs just might keep the Owls from the Championship game. If not, a nine-seed just might slip into the Championship game.
The UConn/Miami (FL) analysis:
| Expected Line* | ||
| UConn | Stat | Miami (FL) |
| 75 | Base Pts | 73 |
| Adj Pts* | ||
| 27-60 (45.0%) | FG | 26-57 (45.6%) |
| 19-36 (52.8%) | 2PT FG | 20-38 (52.6%) |
| 8-24 (33.3%) | 3 PT FG | 6-19 (31.6%) |
| 13-17 (76.5%) | FT | 15-19 (78.9%) |
| 35 | Reb | 32 |
| 16 | Assists | 12 |
| 13 | TOs | 12 |
| 6 | Steals | 7 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| Basic Data Analysis | |||
| Overall | UConn | Miami (FL) | Adv |
| Pts | 78.5 | 79.4 | Neutral |
| Pts Against | 65.0 | 72.1 | UConn |
| Rebs | 39.0 | 34.6 | UConn |
| Assists | 17.3 | 14.9 | UConn |
| TOs | 12.9 | 11.3 | Miami (FL) |
| Steals | 6.5 | 7.3 | Miami (FL) |
| Blocks | 4.9 | 3.3 | UConn |
| Fouls | 18.1 | 14.4 | Miami (FL) |
Like the other game, UConn makes TWO more threes than Miami (FL) to negate the fact that Miami gets to the line more and makes two more FTs and one more 2-PTer. With expected advantages in offensive rebounding, assists, and overall efficiencies, UConn should be more of a favorite, but Miami is not without a lot of positives in its own game.
But to make up for their deficiencies, Miami will need to tighten up their 3-Pt defense, which is the worst of the four remaining teams. If they do that and deny UConn just one three they might have gotten, we are looking at a statistical tie.
With that, this game could also come down to which coach wins the second of the “Whistle Wars.” Can Miami’s style get them to the line just one more time after denying that last three attempt by UConn to win by one and go to the Championship game? Can UConn survive its first real challenge to get to that final?
Conclusion:
The Madness continues. Enjoy!!!
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